A public lecture entitled "A new arc of instability (the probability and potential destabilization in Central Asia in context of the processes taking place in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan)" was held on September 28 the in Alma-Ata Institute of Political Decisions.
At this "new intellectual format" from the Club of the Institute of Political Decisions, representatives of the local expert community and media representatives talked to well-known experts on the War against Islam in Central Asia and South Asia, Marlene Laruelle (France) and Alexander Knyazev (Russia).
As the experts formulated, "the new arc of instability" is a probability of situational involvement into a single conflict zone of prolonged actions in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Disagreeing somewhere in details, Marlene Laruelle and Alexander Knyazev were unanimous in identifying the main trends in today's Afghanistan. They mentioned increasing intensification of the IEA Mujahideen forces and the resistance movement against foreign military presence, a tendency to reduce military presence of the ISAF and the Operation Enduring Freedom, an ongoing lack of strength of Karzai's puppets, inability to establish a regional ethno-tribal balance in Afghanistan's political elite of apostates in short to medium time periods.
Marlene Laruelle called the Afghan problem a "deadlock", stating that the mistake has been made by the very beginning of Western military operations in Afghanistan, as well as in its continuation, but leaving the situation in the present state, according to this fierce enemy of Islam, would be also a mistake.
In the context of the Central Asian perspective, Alexander Knyazev emphasized two important trends: it is a "reincarnation" of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and its revitalization, according to the infidel expert, in the north-eastern provinces (Takhar, Kunduz, Badakhshan, partly in the Baghlan, Samangan, Batgiz, Faryab), and trends towards the resumption of activities of the IMU in Central Asia.
Symptoms of a possibility for the renewed jihad in Tajikistan, Alexander Knyazev says, are a chain of events that began in the spring of the last year, when unrest in the Garm group of districts, Tavildaraand and the Rasht valley reflected the protest of former commanders of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) against reprisals by the Rahmon government.
In March-April 2010, followed unrest caused by socio-economic reasons in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region which was a counter-reaction to an aggressive policy of Rahmon against survived and non-imprisoned UTO representatives and clergy.
The last few months show a strong conflict dynamics:
- August 22, 2010; escape of Mujahideen from the prison of Rahmon's KGB,
- August 26, 2010; mass riots in Nurek,
- September 3, 2010; an explosion outside the building of the gang of Organized anti-Crime unit in Khujand; for the first time, with a martyr bomber in the region,
- September 6 2010; an explosion in the den of vice "Dusti" in Dushanbe,
- 17 September 2010; an attack on Rahmon's troops in a suburb of Dushanbe,
- September 18, 2010; clashes with Mujahideen in Faizabad district,
- September 20, 2010; Mujahideen attacked a military convoy in the Rasht valley.
The situation in Kyrgyzstan is characterized as recurrent. The situation is "aggravated" in favor of the Mujahideen by multidirectional external stimuli (US, Russia, China, etc.).
According to Knyazev, if we take into account the strong potential of the IMU, as well as the synthesis of ethnic and religious factors of the Uzbek community in the south, the situation for the infidels "looks almost menacing".
Meanwhile, according to the Wall Street Journal, the IEA refuted the attempts of the Rahmon's regime to write off the operations of the Mujahideen of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan on the Afghan Mujahideen.
"The policy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is not to interfere in neighboring countries. This is Tajikistan's domestic issue", the newspaper quoted the IEA spokesman Zabihullah Mujahed who allegedly said that "in an interview".
The newspaper does not specify what interview it was, as well as where and when it was published.
Department of MonitoringKavkaz Center